pitching

I know pitching & defense are linked but I want to limit this discussion to the Reds pitching. I think it will be a lot better in 2009.Volquez: Most seem to think he will slip. Why I am not sure. I am going to pencil him in for a repeat of 2008. If he does 2/3 of what he did last year it will be a productive year for him. One year stronger & wiser.He may not increase his IP due to his pitching in the WBC this spring. Bullpen: I am going to pencil in a slight improvement. Cordero is healthier. Burton is healthy. Bray is a year older. Lincoln is one more year out from his last surgery. I'll say 5 ER less.Overall estimate: 118 less earned runs!As always with pitching: the sky's the limit. You can never have too much and there's no end to how good it can make a squad. think Cueto will improve a bit and Arroyo to be much as he's been in the past.Harang is a big ? to me right now because of his health. Lets assume the 5th starter can put up an ERA of 4.50 .(I think this is possible with the quality of 5th starter candidates we have).With the above math that means 50 less runs given up by the Reds in 2009.This number is big because in 2008 our 5th starters were just awful.